India’s quick commerce market could grow from about US$13 billion in FY26 to about US$90 billion by FY31, taking the channel from about 1% to 4 to 5% of Indian retail, according to a report published by Redseer Strategy Consultants on 7 October 2026. The report, Think Quick Commerce: Unlocking the $90Bn Opportunity, was developed in collaboration with Google and is written by Redseer partner Kushal Bhatnagar and engagement manager Artham Khetan.

Redseer projects growth of 41 to 48% a year and describes the FY31 opportunity as a market of US$70 to 90 billion. It says quick commerce has grown from about US$0.4 billion in FY22 and now holds more than 40% of a hyperlocal market worth about US$30 billion. The findings draw on a survey of more than 1,200 respondents in metro and non-metro cities, more than 50 in-store interactions and Redseer’s own benchmarks.

Chasing the monthly grocery basket

Metros are expected to deliver about 60% of incremental gross merchandise value through FY31, with non-metros contributing about 40%. Quick commerce accounts for about 6% of metro retail spend today, and Redseer expects that to reach 20 to 23% by FY31. It says no major category yet exceeds 15% penetration. The report argues that platforms must move grocery shoppers from top-up orders to monthly household pantry replenishment, and examines why the Rs 3,000 to 4,000 monthly stock-up still goes to supermarkets and which quality, assortment and pricing changes could bring it online.

For consumer brands, the report covers how to prioritise quick commerce within a wider portfolio, from bulk packs and fresh-batch allocation in grocery to category selection in non-grocery. It also discusses commerce media networks, in which brands and marketplaces co-invest using retailers’ first-party signals. YourStory, reporting on the study, said the move towards pantry restocking in metros was prompting bulk packs, volume pricing and reorder reminders.

YourStory also reported the study’s projections that non-grocery categories such as beauty, home goods and electronics could grow from US$3 billion in FY26 to US$21 to 27 billion by 2031, and that festive season quick commerce sales would rise 110% year on year and make up about 18% of online festive shopping. Those figures do not appear on Redseer’s report page.

Smaller cities: aware but not ordering

Outside the metros, Redseer counts about 200 million online shoppers across more than 300 cities. Its report outline says 180 to 200 million addressable shoppers in serviced cities translate into only 12 to 16 million monthly transacting users today, and it projects 55 to 60 million by FY2031. More than 95% of surveyed non-users already know about quick commerce, and Redseer names smaller baskets, freshness concerns and trust in purchases as the main barriers to regular ordering. The levers it proposes include demand pooling, wallet-led delivery incentives, freshness assurance, vernacular support and community partners. YourStory reported that platforms are testing flexible delivery windows, regional brands and smaller trial sizes in these markets.

In comments reported by YourStory, Bhatnagar said the channel built its early scale on getting a known item to a customer in minutes, and Karan Dugal, Head of Industry for Quick Commerce and FoodTech at Google India, said there is no longer a single playbook for quick commerce in India.

The report page does not name individual platforms or give their shares, does not say whether Google funded the work, and gives no fieldwork dates or margin of error for the survey. F&B Today reviewed the report page, not the full downloadable report.

F&B Today’s reading

  • Analysis, for packaged food brands: if platforms go after the Rs 3,000 to 4,000 monthly stock-up, quick commerce ranges shift from single-serve top-ups towards family and bulk packs, judged on price per kilo against the supermarket shelf. Brands will need packs built for that comparison, not just for impulse.
  • Analysis, for fresh and dairy suppliers: Redseer names freshness as a barrier outside metros and fresh-batch allocation as a brand lever. Suppliers of short shelf-life lines should expect platforms to ask for fresher date codes and faster replenishment as the price of growth.
  • Analysis, for regional manufacturers: smaller-city growth built on value, pooled demand and vernacular support favours regional brands with local price points, provided they can meet platform listing and data requirements.
  • Analysis, on the source: a range of US$70 to 90 billion is wide, and the study was developed in collaboration with Google without the report page saying who funded it. Brands should weigh its commerce media recommendations with that in mind.