Take-home grocery sales in Great Britain rose 1.0% in the four weeks to 4 October 2026 compared with a year earlier, while like-for-like grocery price inflation rose to 2.5% from 2.3% four weeks before, according to figures published by Worldpanel by Numerator on 13 October 2026. Reuters noted that, once inflation is taken into account, the figures imply lower volumes.

Worldpanel said spending on promotions in the latest month was up by more than a quarter of a billion pounds on last year, saying shoppers were using offers to make pricier items and larger packs more affordable. It tied the caution to the Autumn Budget and fuel costs: more than half of households in its PanelVoice survey of 9,549 households, with fieldwork from 17 to 29 July 2026, said they were very or extremely worried about petrol prices.

With the Autumn Budget fast approaching, the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on the minds of shoppers.

Fraser McKevitt, Head of Retail and Consumer Insight, Worldpanel by Numerator

Who gained and who slipped

Over the 12 weeks to 4 October, Lidl made the largest share gain, rising to 8.6% from 8.2% a year earlier as sales grew 7.1%. Worldpanel said the discounter drew more than half a million additional customers over the period, with strong growth in fruit, vegetables and wine. Online specialist Ocado grew sales 12.4%, against 5.5% for online grocery overall, and its share rose to 2.2% from 2.0%.

Tesco’s sales rose 1.0% and Sainsbury’s sales rose 1.3%, for shares of 27.8% and 15.2%. In the table published by Reuters, those compare with 27.9% and 15.3% a year earlier, and Reuters said Tesco’s share had edged lower for the fifth report in a row. Asda held 11.5% of the market; Reuters’ table shows that down from 11.8%, with sales 0.5% lower. Aldi held 10.5%, against 10.6% a year earlier, with sales up 0.4%.

Morrisons kept its 8.3% share with sales up 1.8%. Waitrose grew sales 2.3% for a 4.4% share and Co-op’s sales rose 1.8% for a 5.4% share, both unchanged from a year earlier in Reuters’ table. Iceland’s sales rose 0.2% for a 2.2% share. FMCG sales at M&S rose 14.9%. Worldpanel does not give M&S a comparable share because, with a higher proportion of clothing and general merchandise in its sales mix, M&S does not fall under its definition of a grocer.

Prices, categories and the wider retail picture

Reuters reported that prices rose fastest in water, cordials and skincare and fell fastest in butter, cheese and chocolate. Worldpanel said like-for-like chocolate confectionery prices were 3% lower than a year ago, ahead of Halloween and Christmas, which it called two of the most important moments of the year for the category.

A separate measure, the BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor published the same day, put UK food sales up 2.5% year on year over the five weeks from 30 August to 3 October, against 4.3% growth a year earlier and below the 12-month average of 3.1%. Total retail sales rose 1.3%.

While Halloween may support impulse grocery sales in the short term, food businesses’ attention will be firmly on the Budget and what it could mean for consumer spending power, business costs and demand heading into 2027.

Sarah Bradbury, CEO, IGD

Worldpanel’s release does not give prior-year shares for Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda or Aldi, Asda’s sales change, an own-label and branded split, or which categories carried the extra promotional spend. Reuters reported that industry groups predict UK food inflation will reach nearly 7% in 2027. The Office for National Statistics’ next retail sales release is due on 23 October.

F&B Today’s reading

  • Analysis, for brand owners: sales growth below the rate of inflation, alongside sharply higher promotional spend, points to shoppers trading on deals rather than buying more. Suppliers planning Christmas activity should expect retailers to press for funded promotions rather than accept list price rises.
  • Analysis, for suppliers to discounters: Lidl grew 7.1% while Aldi grew 0.4%. Account plans that treat the discounters as one channel need separate forecasts for each.
  • Analysis, for premium and fresh suppliers: Ocado at 12.4% and M&S FMCG sales at 14.9% are growing far faster than the market. Their absolute share is smaller, but they are where incremental growth is being found this autumn.
  • Analysis, for confectionery makers: with chocolate prices 3% below last year going into the two biggest seasons, value growth now depends on volume returning after the double digit increases Worldpanel noted for 2025.